So I was bored, and decided to check some race predictors. You know, I have this marathon coming up, and I just ran a half, so yeah, it seemed like a fun thing to do. (Do you like how nonchalant I am?) I've only run two races recently. A 5K in 18:41 and a half marathon in 1:25:55. I used the half time for the predictors. Here's what I found:
- I found this race predictor calculator over on Race Times, and really liked the predicted times it spit out at me. For one, based on my half marathon time it predicts an 18:41 5K time, which is exactly what I ran a month ago, so that's sort of interesting. And for another it predicts a marathon time of 2:59:08. Cool beans.
- This Race Predictor predicts an 18:51 5K and 2:59:35 marathon time based on my half time. (I like this one too.)
- Another Race Calculator predicts an 18:26 5K and 2:59:56. Those are sweet times too (for me).
- Yet another predicts an 18:42 5K and 2:59:07. This one is my favorite (for obvious reasons).
- McMillan, on the other hand, is raining on my sub-3:00 parade with a prediction of 3:00:49. Boo, hiss, McMillan!
Here, let me share an example. I was jauntily sharing with Nick how four of the five race predictors were predicting a sub 3:00 marathon based on last week's half marathon time. Rather than looking thoroughly pleased (as he should have). He looked really uncomfortable. Of course, I could tell what he was thinking. Race day performance is impacted by a variety of things like the weather and how one feels and a million other factors that play into having the "perfect" day. (Something I don't think I've experienced yet by the way.) Yeah, yeah, I know, but it's still sort of cool that some race predictors are predicting that I could possibly break 3:00, right? RIGHT!? (He pretty much continued to look uncomfortable until the topic of conversation changed.)
Do I really think I can break 3:00 on October 20th? I don't know. This is starting to feel stressful. Don't pressure me!!!
Seriously though, I have no idea. I didn't really train with a particular goal in mind. It's possible, but it seems (to me) if I am capable of breaking the big 3:00 mark, it would have to be a pretty darn good day. For one, I've never been able to run what the race predictors say I can run for a marathon. Realistically speaking, there's no evidence to suggest that this year I'll suddenly be able to run those predicted times. For another, though I haven't had a particular goal in mind, I've generally trained with a 7:03 marathon pace in mind, which is a 3:05.
Oh, also, I just started working full-time again....today, which is definitely adding some unforeseen stress to this taper time. I woke up this morning at 4:50 am to run my 6 miles to find I had a sore throat and glamorously hacked out some thick green mucus before heading out on my run. On the plus side, I ran fine, so there's that. Am I worried? Hmmm, good question, I know I've been running well, and it would be nice just to feel reasonably well on race day, but I really have been more relaxed this training cycle. I have a lot going on, and other things that are taking priority right now, and that's just the way it is sometimes.
On a positive note, this was my last long run (yes, I'm still taking picture of Garmin and will use those pictures to console myself should I have a bad race day):
This "training" cycle has treated me surprising well. For this week, I'll embrace the taper, and focus on surviving work stress. Next week...well, let's not get too ahead of ourselves...
The Fun Non-Running:
We went apple picking again this weekend, and this was my favorite phone photo from the day. I love how my phone has a camera. I get to record these moments without any fuss or planning.
A Little Poll:
Do you believe in race predictors? Does anyone out there actually run the times that are predicted?