Here I am after my last 20 miler. Completely soaked. Really. It looked and felt like I had jumped in a pool, but obviously I didn't (because it's too cold for the right now). Anyway, today was my last long run. Boston is a little over two weeks out now, and I'm thinking about my goal. I have to be realistic, training has been fairly horrendous this training cycle, but the last few weeks have gone well...so that's positive.
Below I have a table of my weekly mileage, my long run distance, and long run pace. I really made the table for me. Sometimes it helps to see the data in a table...
What does the data tell me? I've been inconsistent with my weekly mileage. I won't make excuses, it is what is. Given that inconsistency, it's unrealistic to think that I'll be running a personal record. That being said, I've also run 12 runs that are 20-23 miles, and that will be a real benefit (especially given my weekly inconsistencies). I did one on course 22 miler last week at 7:24 pace (my peak week), which gave me a little boost of confidence. My 20 miler on the treadmill today was at 7:07 pace (so another little boost of confidence).
To sum it up: weekly mileage bad, long runs good. What else do I know? You can't tell from the table, but I have no speed right now. My 5K, 10K, and half marathon pace are all pretty much the same right now. That's not the greatest, but maybe it doesn't really matter for a marathon...I don't know. I guess I'll find out in two weeks.
How should I determine a goal? I've decided to go for 3:10-3:12. I'll start out a 7:15 pace and try to stay there for as long as possible. I think that's reasonable. How did I come up with that? I pretended that today's 20 miler was a time trial and plugged it into McMillians calculator and used the marathon pace it spit out to determine my goal. It might be a little conservative as I don't think I ran as fast as I could have today, but reasonable given my other training setbacks...
There you have it, by the numbers. ;)